Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.
Forest impacts models do not project a substantial change in habitat suitability for eastern redcedar under a range of climate scenarios. However, eastern redcedar is already expanding in the area due to fire suppression and will likely expand further.
Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species. Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group species. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.
Multiple impact models agree that these species will do well under a range of climate scenarios. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, posing a threat to shortleaf pine, especially in dense stands.
Open woodlands are similar to closed woodland systems, but receive more frequent fire and tend to be on flatter ridge-tops. Most of the species in open woodlands are highly tolerant of drought and fire, and may have reduced competition from more mesic, fire-intolerant species if fires and dry conditions increase. Projected early-season increases in precipitation that result in vegetation growth followed by summer drought may increase fire probability.
Some sites currently characterized as dry-mesic forests could transition to a closed woodland structure if conditions become drier and fire becomes more frequent later in the century. The extent to which fire is a component of the system may ultimately determine the success of this community type. If the system experiences very frequent fire, this system could benefit or undergo transition to an open woodland.
Although specific model information is lacking, most invasive species are expected to benefit or see no detrimental effects of climate change. However, one of the many invasive plants, garlic mustard, is relatively drought-intolerant and could decrease if conditions become significantly drier during the growing season.
Past fire exclusion has led to an increase in woody species in the understory. This change in composition has suppressed regeneration of overstory species in the eastern part of this community type’s range, and suppressed herbaceous species establishment in the western part. An increase in fire frequency could help reduce this stressor.
Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species. Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group speices. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment will increase for shortleaf pine, particularly in the Missouri Ozarks. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, which could lead to negative effects on shortleaf pine, particularly in highly dense stands.
One forest impact model suggests habitat suitability will decrease for shagbark hickory under multiple scenarios.
