Forest [FAR1] | Adaptation Workbook

Eastern redcedar, which outcompetes herbaceous vegetation in barrens and savannas, is projected to be relatively unaffected by future climate changes over the next century.

Forest impacts models do not project a substantial change in habitat suitability for eastern redcedar under a range of climate scenarios. However, eastern redcedar is already expanding in the area due to fire suppression and will likely expand further.

Read more about Eastern redcedar, which outcompetes herbaceous vegetation in barrens and savannas, is projected to be relatively unaffected by future climate changes over the next century.

Most dominant tree species in upland spruce-fir forests are expected to decline across northern Michigan by the end of the century (balsam fir, northern white-cedar, white spruce, and paper birch).

These are boreal species near their southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.

Read more about Most dominant tree species in upland spruce-fir forests are expected to decline across northern Michigan by the end of the century (balsam fir, northern white-cedar, white spruce, and paper birch).

Changes in black and chinquapin oak in barrens and savannas over the next century may depend on whether summer precipitation increases or decreases.

Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for black and chinquapin oak. Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for black and chiquapin oak.

Read more about Changes in black and chinquapin oak in barrens and savannas over the next century may depend on whether summer precipitation increases or decreases.

Many species in barrens and savannas are projected to benefit from projected changes in climate over the next century, such as shortleaf pine, blackjack oak, post oak, and black hickory.

Multiple impact models agree that these species will do well under a range of climate scenarios. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, posing a threat to shortleaf pine, especially in dense stands.

Read more about Many species in barrens and savannas are projected to benefit from projected changes in climate over the next century, such as shortleaf pine, blackjack oak, post oak, and black hickory.

Upland spruce-fir forests may be tolerant of increased moisture stress and disturbance from climate change.

Upland spruce-fir forests can persist on droughty, nutrient-poor sites and they regerate well after disturbance such as fire. These traits may allow upland spruce-fir forests to tolerate a moderate amount of climate change and disturbance. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common in the Northwoods by the end of the century. Increases in stand-replacing wildfire could provide opportunities for regeneration where conditions remain suitable for the dominant species.

Read more about Upland spruce-fir forests may be tolerant of increased moisture stress and disturbance from climate change.

Barrens and savannas may benefit from moderate increases in fire frequency by the end of the century.

Models suggest that fire risk may increase by the end of the century. The trees and understory herbaceous species in barrens and savannas are adapted to frequent fire. If fires increase, this could decrease competition with less fire-tolerant species. However, if fires become too severe or frequent, conditions could favor a grassland community devoid of trees.

Read more about Barrens and savannas may benefit from moderate increases in fire frequency by the end of the century.

Droughts may place greater stress on barrens compared to savannas due to differences in soil type.

Models suggests droughts may increase in area and duration. Barrens communities develop on extremely shallow, well-drained soils, making them well adapted to drought conditions. However, the low water-holding capacity typical of soils in barrens communities could increase stress under extreme drought conditions. Savanna communities, which are similar in structure to barrens, are characterized by deeper, more nutrient-rich soils and may be more buffered against drought.

Read more about Droughts may place greater stress on barrens compared to savannas due to differences in soil type.

Upland spruce-fir forests may lose suitable habitat to other forest types as snowfall decreases, growing seasons lengthen, and temperatures increase.

Within northern Michigan, upland spruce-fir forests are typically confined to areas with shorter growing seasons and lake-effect snow and fog. Water temperatures of the Great Lakes are increasing faster than air temperatures, so lake-effect fog may become less common during the growing season. Uncertainty exists for snowfall levels in northern Michigan, particularly for lake-effect snow, but it is projected that snowfall will decline by the end of the century.

Read more about Upland spruce-fir forests may lose suitable habitat to other forest types as snowfall decreases, growing seasons lengthen, and temperatures increase.

Decreases in open woodlands in areas that become too dry or fire-prone could be offset by transition from closed woodlands to open woodland.

In areas that become particularly dry and fire-prone, open woodlands could transition to a more barrens or prairie-like structure. However, if closed woodlands also become drier and more fire-prone, they could transition to a more open woodland structure. In these new areas, overstory woody species may do better than understory herbaceous species because many of the herbaceous species are not present in the seedbank and have a limited ability to disperse.

Read more about Decreases in open woodlands in areas that become too dry or fire-prone could be offset by transition from closed woodlands to open woodland.

Sericea lespedeza invasion is a particular problem in open woodlands, and will potentially become more problematic over the next century.

Sericea lespedeza outcompetes native vegetation, particularly in the western part of the assessment area. No models have been developed to address sericea lespedeza's response to a changing climate, but inferences can be made based on its known tolerance to drought and fire. Increased sericea lespideza abundance could reduce regeneration of tree species and change community structure.

Read more about Sericea lespedeza invasion is a particular problem in open woodlands, and will potentially become more problematic over the next century.