Forested watershed

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decrease in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Emerald ash borer will be a major concern for ash species, and Dutch elm disease is expected to limit the potential increase in American elm. Wet Forests often exist as large complexes of black ash or only a few species, and forests with limited options may have less ability to adapt to changing conditions.

Wet Forests are adapted to fluctuating soil moisture, so they might be capable of tolerating short-term floods and droughts. Extended droughts would cause significant damage to these shallow-rooted forests. Increased winter and spring precipitation could buffer summer moisture stress if excess water is retained in low-lying areas on the landscape.

Wet Forests depend on wet-mesic soils with saturated conditions in the spring and dry conditions in the summer months. Climate change has the potential to alter precipitation patterns across the assessment area, particularly during the growing season. The regeneration requirements of several species within this system are also linked to the timing of these wet and dry periods. Shifts in the timing or amount of precipitation could disrupt the function of these forests.

Invasive species such as European buckthorn and reed canarygrass are generally expected to benefit from longer growing seasons, disrupted ecosystems, and warmer temperatures, but it's hard to predict exactly how they may be affected by climate change.

Longer growing seasons and milder winters might allow populations of native forest pests to build more rapidly, and many pests have been shown to be more damaging when interacting with trees that are already stressed due to droughts or other impacts. It also seems very likely that the emerald ash borer will reduce the amount of green and black ash in northern Minnesota.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. These forests also contain several species at their northern range limits, which may benefit from gene flow between southern populations. These species are generally adapted to thrive in riparian settings, so Floodplain Forests may be at a low risk to transition to other forest types.

Floodplain Forests are adapted to periodic disturbances and fluctuating soil moisture, so they might be capable of tolerating future changes to the hydrologic cycle. Heavy precipitation events have been increasing in Minnesota, and this trend is expected to continue under climate change. The possibility for warmer and wetter conditions and winter and spring might also leads to more flooding in these seasons. More flood events might not necessarily be harmful to Floodplain Forests, but some systems may be at risk of excessive waterlogging and downcutting of riverbanks.

Floodplain Forests are adapted to seasonal and annual floods. The regeneration requirements of several species within this system are also linked to these floods. If climate change results in shifts in the timing or volume of stream flows, this forest system could be impaired. This risk may be higher in watersheds that have already been altered with dams, river channelization, or developed floodplains.

Mesic Hardwood Forests that contain a diversity of species, age classes, and structures may be more resilient to changing conditions than forests with few species and uniform age classes and structure. Diversity in all of these features can give a forest more possible pathways to respond to changing or unexpected conditions.

The potential exists for negative interactions between stressors in this system, such as earthworms, herbivory, drought, and invasive species. Each of these stressors is generally expected to be more damaging under climate change, but it's hard to predict how they may act in combination.