Forested watershed | Adaptation Workbook

Habitat suitability for many of the mesic upland forest's dominant species, such as sugar maple, beech, basswood, and white ash, is projected to decline by the end of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment of sugar maple will decrease, with complete losses of suitable habitat in the Missouri Ozarks, and a reduction in suitable habitat in the eastern part of the region. Models also suggest decreases for American beech, basswood, and white ash across multiple scenarios.

Read more about Habitat suitability for many of the mesic upland forest's dominant species, such as sugar maple, beech, basswood, and white ash, is projected to decline by the end of the century.

The increased risk of wildfire projected by the end of the century could have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

Most of the dominant species in mesic upland forests are not adapted to fire, and could be top-killed or experience other damaging effects if fires occur. However, the nature of the litter layer may protect this system from fire to some extent.

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A projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation during the growing season is expected to have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

Mesic upland forests are adapted to cooler, wetter conditions that are typical of north-facing slopes and ravines. Since they already occupy the coolest, wettest positions on the landscape, there is nowhere else for them to migrate.

Read more about A projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation during the growing season is expected to have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

Habitat suitability for sugar maple, a common species in dry-mesic forests, is projected to decline across the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century.

Read more about Habitat suitability for sugar maple, a common species in dry-mesic forests, is projected to decline across the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century.

Dry-mesic upland forests are widely distributed on a variety of soils and topographies, increasing adaptive capacity.

Dry-mesic forests are the most common community type in the Central Hardwoods region and contain a wide variety of species. Any declines in this community type on drier sites may be offset by transition from more mesic forests to this type.

Read more about Dry-mesic upland forests are widely distributed on a variety of soils and topographies, increasing adaptive capacity.

Many nonnative invasive plant species are expected to continue to be a problem in dry-mesic upland forests.

Most invasive species are expected to benefit or see no detrimental effects of climate change. However, one of the many invasive plants, garlic mustard, is relatively drought-intolerant and could decrease if conditions become significantly drier during the growing season.

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White oak, a common species in dry-mesic upland forests, will likely persist in the Central Hardwoods region through the end of the century.

Some models and scenarios suggest a decrease in habitat suitability or establishment for white oak, but since it is a long-lived species that can tolerate a wide variety of stressors, such as drought and fire, no large changes in white oak are expected over the next several decades.

Read more about White oak, a common species in dry-mesic upland forests, will likely persist in the Central Hardwoods region through the end of the century.

Projected changes in the red oak group species, which are common in dry-mesic upland forests, vary with climate scenario.

Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species (northern red, scarlet, and black oak). Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group speices. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.

Read more about Projected changes in the red oak group species, which are common in dry-mesic upland forests, vary with climate scenario.

Habitat suitability for shortleaf pine, a common species in dry-mesic forests in Missouri, is projected to increase across the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment will increase for shortleaf pine, particularly in the Missouri Ozarks. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, which could lead to negative effects on shortleaf pine, particularly in highly dense stands.

Read more about Habitat suitability for shortleaf pine, a common species in dry-mesic forests in Missouri, is projected to increase across the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century.

If soil moisture decreases in the summer, as some models suggest, it could have a negative impact on dry-mesic upland forests.

Dry-mesic forests can tolerate some drying, but some of the more mesic species in the system may not be able to tolerate excessive moisture deficits

Read more about If soil moisture decreases in the summer, as some models suggest, it could have a negative impact on dry-mesic upland forests.