Agriculture
Agriculture strategies/approaches.
Taxonomy Machine Name
niacs_strategy_ag
Taxonomy Alias
ag
Warming temperatures and changes in rainfall, now and into the future, are increasing the range of avian malaria to higher elevations, threatening numerous forest bird species.
Avian malaria is a primary factor in the decline of many Hawaiian forest birds, especially those of the family Fringillidae, such as the Hawaiian honeycreeper. Currently, high elevation forests are the only remaining refugia for some bird species, as avian malaria, and its associated vector, the southern house mosquito, is limited by temperature constraints.
Changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) can lead to shifts in stream flow regimes in tropical watersheds, with impacts to aquatic organism habitat quality and downstream water supply.
Drier conditions with reduced groundwater recharge and stream discharge are expected in the future, as well as increased flow variability and instability. Projected declines in overall rainfall, increased magnitude of precipitation extremes (rainfall and drought), and increases in air and ocean temperatures are expected to contribute to changed stream flow regimes, including shifts in potential evapotranspiration, rates of infiltration, and onset and duration of surface runoff. Increased air temperatures and reductions in coastal precipitation have already reduced median base flow by 23%.
Future projections, through 2061, indicate a >30% decrease in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.
Terrestrial ecosystems in Hawaii have a high carbon sequestration capacity due to the year-round warm, wet climate and highly fertile soils. However, decreases in carbon sequestration are predicted through 2061, due to decreases in net primary production (NPP), increased carbon losses from land-use change, and increased aquatic carbon-leaching losses to nearshore waters. Hawai'i island is projected to remain a net carbon sink through 2061, due to terrestrial carbon sequestration.
Two fungal pathogens, which cause the disease Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD), are leading to widespread loss of ‘ōhi‘a lehua, Hawai'i's most widespread native tree.
This fungal disease has the potential to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to ‘ōhi‘a mortality events. Protecting trees from damage by introduced feral ungulates can help reduce the prevalence of this fungal disease, as damage is often a precursor to infection.
Production potential for agroecosystems in the future, based on 3 different climate models, ranges from no change to decreases of up to 19% by end of century.
Indigenous agroecosystems can achieve the goals of conserving biodiversity while increasing food production. Species richness within agroecosystems is often comparable to adjacent forest reserves. Historic production from indigenous agriculture is estimated to have potentially yielded enough food to feed more than 1.2 million people each year.
Expected decreases in rainfall during the wet season and marginal increases during the dry season are the main contributing factors to the overall decrease in water balance, which may have serious implications on groundwater availability.
In the Heeia watershed in Oahu, groundwater flow may decrease by as much as 15% by 2100.