Forest

Episodic precipitation is likely to result in more intense storms, and subsequent flooding events. Although this ecosystem is highly dependent on disturbance and a regular influx of seeds, nutrients, and water during periodic flooding, increases in flood intensity or more frequent drought may not be tolerated by many species, especially in the early growth stages. Many riverine species in this forest type depend on high moisture availability, and are especially threatened by discrete periods of dry soil conditions.

Heavy deer browsing is also limiting seedling establishment and growth, and protection from herbivory will be critical in establishing regeneration, now and under future climate conditions.

Invasive plants such as princesstree, silktree, ailanthus, and glossy buckthorn compete directly with understory plants and native tree regeneration and these invasives are likely to take advantage of increased temperatures and disturbance.

Beech bark disease, emerald ash borer, hemlock woolly adelgid, anthracnose disease, and a variety of other pests and pathogens currently affect this ecosystem. The emerald ash borer has already reduced the white ash component in parts of the assessment area.

This system is intolerant of fire, and is characterized by long disturbance intervals. An increase in wildfire could promote transition to primarily fire-adapted species (e.g., oaks), changing the identity of this ecosystem.

Droughty conditions late in the growing season can negatively impact advance regeneration and newly established seedlings.

This forest occurs largely within the lake-effect zone of Lake Erie, where this forest’s position on glacial till floodplains, moraines, and plateaus promotes and preserves moist soil conditions, a critical feature which may help buffer the impacts of changing temperature and hydrologic regimes on mature trees.

Models project that American beech, sugar maple, and eastern hemlock (occurring locally Ohio) will remain relatively stable under low climate scenarios, but will lose suitable habitat, growth potential, and volume in the assessment area under high climate scenarios. These species are vulnerable to the direct changes in temperature and precipitation, and are susceptible to increased moisture stress and other indirect impacts of climate change.