FAR2
White pine can thrive with periodic surface wildfires. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common in northern Wisconsin and Michigan by the end of the century. Increases in periodic fire may be beneficial by reducing ladder fuels and competition, although substantially more frequent or severe fire may favor red or jack pine forests.
White pine forests are relatively drought tolerant and may tolerate some degree of greater precipitation variability under climate change. This forest system is present across a wide range of soils and landforms, and some sites may be more affected by altered soil moisture regimes than others. Moisture stress could favor red pine, jack pine, or northern pin oak on already marginal sites.
These are boreal species near their southern range limits in Wisconsin and Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Several species in this system are limited by high growing-season temperatures, so projected warming in the assessment area may exceed the physiological limits of this forest system.
Low species diversity gives these forests few alternatives if conditions shift beyond tolerable limits, and low genetic diversity is a concern for red pine in particular.
Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed or overstocked stands are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases. The possibility exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in northern Wisconsin or western Upper Michigan.
This species is already near its southern range limits in Wisconsin. Red pine may be limited by warm temperatures, so projected warming may exceed the physiological limits of this species. Management has maintained red pine across much of the assessment area, and regeneration of this species usually relies on planted seedlings. Seasonal shifts in precipitation patterns, particularly the trend toward wetter springs and drier summers, may impair the survival of planted seedlings. Mature red pine trees are generally drought tolerant.
Red pine can thrive with regular surface wildfires. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan by the end of the century. Greater wildfire activity could be positive for this forest type. In some areas, the on-going shift toward mesic species in these forests is a current threat, and this trend may continue if fire suppression activities remain constant and broadleaf species like red maple and black cherry increase under climate change.
Red pine is relatively drought tolerant and may not be greatly affected by more frequent moisture stress or more extensive droughts, except on the driest of sites. Moisture stress could favor jack pine or northern pin oak on already marginal red pine sites.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that oaks are likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Results are mixed for northern red oak and northern pin oak. Oak forests are limited by cold temperatures in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan, so warming may allow oaks to expand into previously unsuitable areas.
Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases. Emerald ash borer and Dutch elm disease are expected to continue to limit ash and elm species. New pests such as hemlock wooly adelgid may be able to persist if introduced.
