Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.
Forested Rich Peatlands are widely distributed across northern Minnesota, but are confined to particular hydrologic regimes, soil types, and landscape positions. Therefore, they are not expected to expand to new territory within the assessment area or outcompete other forest types.
Higher growing-season temperatures may increase evapotranspiration rates and lower water tables in peat systems. This would reduce the rate of peat accumulation. Peat might also start to degrade over time in these systems as a result of increasing decomposition rates due to warmer conditions or lower water levels.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decrease in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Most species in this system are at the southern edge of their ranges in Minnesota, and therefore may not tolerate warmer conditions. Minnesota is also approaching the southern range limit for sphagnum moss.
Forested Rich Peatlands function in a relatively narrow window of water table conditions and can respond in a matter of years to water table changes. Higher water levels could result in a transition to open peatland systems, but lower water levels could allow other forest types to invade as peat layers dry and decompose. The effects of roads, beaver dams, drainage ditches, or other watershed modifications may be intensified by climate change. Forested Rich Peatlands in large complexes fed through groundwater may be somewhat buffered from seasonal or short-term moisture deficits.
Invasive species such as European buckthorn and reed canarygrass are generally expected to benefit from longer growing seasons, disrupted environments, and warmer temperatures, but it's hard to predict exactly how they may be affected by climate change.
The ongoing decline in black ash documented in northern Minnesota already presents problems for the health of Wet Forests. It also seems very likely that the emerald ash borer will reduce the amount of black ash in northern Minnesota. This is particularly concerning for black ash swamps that don't contain many other species. If ash are removed, there is a risk that water tables will rise in these Wet Forests and they may not be able to maintain tree cover.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decrease in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Emerald ash borer will be a major concern for ash species, and Dutch elm disease is expected to limit the potential increase in American elm. Wet Forests often exist as large complexes of black ash or only a few species, and forests with limited options may have less ability to adapt to changing conditions.
Wet Forests are adapted to fluctuating soil moisture, so they might be capable of tolerating short-term floods and droughts. Extended droughts would cause significant damage to these shallow-rooted forests. Increased winter and spring precipitation could buffer summer moisture stress if excess water is retained in low-lying areas on the landscape.
Wet Forests depend on wet-mesic soils with saturated conditions in the spring and dry conditions in the summer months. Climate change has the potential to alter precipitation patterns across the assessment area, particularly during the growing season. The regeneration requirements of several species within this system are also linked to the timing of these wet and dry periods. Shifts in the timing or amount of precipitation could disrupt the function of these forests.
