Forest [FAR1]

Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases. The possibility exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in Michigan.

White pine can tolerate a wide range of soil and moisture conditions. This species may do well with a moderate amount of future warming, but models indicate that white pine will fare worse under hotter, drier climate scenarios.

This species is already near its southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that red pine is likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Red pine may be limited by warm temperatures, so projected warming may exceed the physiological limits of this species. Management has maintained red pine across much of the assessment area, and regeneration of this species usually relies on planted seedlings.

Runoff is expected to increase due to an increase in heavy precipitation events, leading to soil erosion. Erosion may be a concern especially in the western part of the assessment area, where glades are located on steeper slopes. Soil erosion may be less of an issue in glades east of the Mississippi, which are on more level terrain.

Red and white pine can thrive with regular surface wildfires. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common in northern Michigan by the end of the century. Greater wildfire activity could be positive for these forest types. The on-going shift toward mesic species in these forests is a current threat, and this trend may continue if fire suppression activities remain constant and broadleaf species like red maple and black cherry increase under climate change.

Forest impacts models do not project a substantial change in habitat suitability for eastern redcedar under a range of climate scenarios. However, eastern redcedar is already expanding in the area due to fire suppression and will likely expand further.

Climate change impact modeling under multiple scenarios suggests that habitat suitability for post oak will increase over the next century.

Several modeling studies in other areas have shown that species with narrow geographic distributions, like many glade species, are more at-risk to climate change.

Pine forests can thrive on droughty, nutrient-poor sites. More frequent moisture stress or more extensive droughts could benefit red and white pine forests on mesic soils, but could impair stands on the driest sites. Moisture stress could favor jack pine or northern pin oak on already marginal red and white pine sites.

Although future distribution of these herbaceous species has not been modeled, many are adapted to the hot, dry conditions that are expected to become more common.