Forest [FAR1]

Models project that suitable habitat, potential growth, and trees per acre for chestnut oak and scarlet oak were projected to remain stable under low climate scenarios and decrease under high climate scenarios. Black oak was projected to remain stable under low climate scenarios, but under high climate scenarios suitable habitat is expected to increase while growth potential and trees per acre decrease. Models project increases in suitable habitat and potential growth for only one species, loblolly pine, which is expected to benefit from increased temperatures under both scenarios.

Increases in canopy-disturbing events are likely to provide regeneration opportunities.

Under moist soil conditions, lush herbaceous and shrub vegetation creates conditions unsuitable to low-intensity fires in this ecosystem. Drier soil conditions in summer and fall, especially on south facing slopes, may desiccate the lush vegetation that normally discourages conditions for wildfire and ultimately provide wildlfire fuel.

The dry oak and pine/oak forest and woodland ecosystem is the most resilient to heat and drought, with many of the species currently doing well, and projected to do well under future climate. Increased drought and fire are likely to benefit this ecosystem, discourage invasive species, and maintain an open structure that benefits oak and pine regeneration. Many pine and oak species are fire-adapted and drought tolerant, some requiring high intensity fire to regenerate. A history of fire suppression and succession has contributed to a reduced pine component in favor of oak species.

The co-occurrence of the dominant species is tightly linked to the unique soils derived from limestone, and movement on the landscape is limited to landscape positions where those soils form.

Invasive species are also common in this forest ecosystem, and climate change is expected to promote establishment and growth of invasives, resulting in increased competition with the high number of rare native plants in this ecosystem. Increases in invasive species such as cheat grass, stilt grass, and bush honeysuckles could increase fire fuels in this type, leading to potentially more intense fire when it does occur.

Many species in this forest ecosystem tolerate temperature and moisture extremes, especially on exposed landscape features, allowing them to out-compete other species. However, increased drought duration and extent may increase susceptibility to oak decline, or combine with insect and disease factors to increase stress or mortality.

Forest impact models project that eastern redcedar, white oak, and post oak will remain relatively stable or increase in suitable habitat, potential growth, and volume under both climate scenarios. White oak is long-lived and able to persist in the shaded understory until openings are naturally created in the canopy. Eastern redcedar, and to a lesser extent white oak, are dependent on disturbance and expected to benefit from soil moisture deficits, fire, and other disturbances.

Low-intensity fire could benefit this ecosystem by reducing the eastern redcedar component
in the woodland portions of this ecosystem that are becoming overgrown. However, high-intensity fire that results in widespread mortality of eastern redcedar will dramatically change this ecosystem. Severe drought, projected temperature increases, and increased fire may allow expansion of the woodland and glade elements at the expense of the forested areas.

Hemlock woolly adelgid, beech bark disease, emerald ash borer, and other pests currently impact many species in this ecosystem and may cause more frequent and severe damage in climate-stressed forests, while new pests such as Asian longhorn beetle and gypsy moth present new risks