Forest [FAR1]

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass under a range of future climate scenarios. Species projected to increase include shortleaf pine, southern red oak, water oak, shagbark hickory, bitternut hickory, willow oak, post oak, loblolly pine, and pitch pine. New habitat is projected for chinkapin oak and Shumard oak. These species all tolerate relatively warm and dry conditions, however, extremes in heat or drought may exceed even the tolerances of pines and oaks.

This community type often occupies dry sandy areas conducive to periodic fire and dominated by oak. Many species are tolerant of drought or moisture stress, but may not tolerate more extreme or longer periods of moisture stress, especially during periods of hotter temperatures. A combination of hot days and low moisture is expected to exceed the tolerance of of sugar maple, aspen, and other associates for seedling establishment. Drought may also stress mature trees, leading to mortality of mesic species and shifting the species composition to oaks and pines.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are likely to shift in relative importance by the end of the century. Additionally,American holly, black oak, sassafras, and scarlet oak are projected to decrease under the high scenario only. Because of their proximity to the ocean, salt-tolerance is also expected to influence how these species respond to the changing climate, but this factor was not included in modeled scenarios.

Maritime forest habitat and species are threatened by many stressors, including development, damage from off-road vehicles, nutrient and contaminant runoff and sedimentation, and continued sea-level rise and increasing coastal surge. Increases in extreme weather events, including convective and tropical storms and hurricanes, could disrupt soil structure, remove soil layers, increase exposure to contaminants, or increase salinity to the system even without added precipitation.

Maritime forests are typically subjected to various impacts, depending on landscape position and exposure to salt spray, sea-level rise, and erosion. Rising sea levels are increasing storm surge and flooding, and this may become an even greater problem as storms become more frequent or severe. Prolonged inundation with salt water may cause stress or mortality of trees, depending on the tolerances of individual species to salt and inundation. Shifting sands may alter soil characteristics, destabilize root systems, and cause erosion.