Many oak species in are expected to increase or remain steady in northern Michigan by the end of the century, particularly under mild climate scenarios.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that white oak is likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Results are mixed for northern red oak, northern pin oak, and black oak. Oak forests are limited by cold temperatures in northern Michigan, so warming may allow oaks to expand into previously unsuitable areas. Many of these species are near their northern range limits in Michigan, so they may benefit from gene flow from southern populations. Several new oak species, including bur oak, pin oak, scarlet oak, and post oak, may gain suitable habitat across the assessment area. Natural migration and expansion of these oak species to the eastern Upper Peninsula may be limited by barriers like the Great Lakes and fragmentation in the southern portion of the assessment area.