Northern Minnesota temperatures will increase between 4 °F and 10 °F by the end of the century, with more warming during winter.

Northern Minnesota has already warmed more than 1.5 degrees since the first half of the 20th century, which is one of the fastest rates of warming across the country. All global climate models project that temperatures will increase with continued increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. More warming is projected under a high climate scenario (RCP 8.5) and more moderate warming is projected under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5).