Limited

Evidence indicates that an increase in temperature and greater moisture stress will lead to increases in these kinds of stressors, but research to date has examined only a few species. Invasive species are already a persistent and growing challenge across much of the United States. Changes may exacerbate this problem, as warmer temperatures may allow some invasive plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north. Northern Minnesota may lose some of the protection offered by a traditionally cold climate and short growing season.

Habitat fragmentation can hinder the ability of species to migrate to more suitable habitat on the landscape, especially if the surrounding area is nonforested. Modeling results in this assessment and elsewhere indicate that trees would need to migrate at rates of hundreds of feet to several miles per year to keep pace with the changes in climate that are projected to occur over the next century. Species in community types that tend to be more rare and fragmented may be at a particular disadvantage.

Evidence indicates that an increase in temperature and greater moisture stress will lead to increases in these kinds of stressors, but research to date has examined only a few species. Invasive species are already a persistent and growing challenge across much of the United States. Changes may exacerbate this problem, as warmer temperatures may allow some invasive plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north. Northern Michigan may lose some of the protection offered by a traditionally cold climate and short growing season.

Some species and forest types are confined to particular habitats on the landscape, whether through requirements for hydrologic regimes, soil types, or other reasons. Similar to species occurring in fragmented landscapes, isolated species and systems face additional barriers to migration. Widespread species may also have particular habitat requirements. For example, sugar maple is often limited to soils that are rich in nutrients like calcium, so this species may actually have less available suitable habitat than might be projected solely from temperature and precipitation patterns.

Habitat fragmentation can hinder the ability of tree species to migrate to more suitable habitat on the landscape, especially if the surrounding area is nonforested. Modeling results indicate that mean centers of suitable habitat for tree species will migrate between 60 and 350 miles by the year 2100 under a high emissions scenario and between 30 and 250 miles under milder climate change scenarios. Based on data gathered for seedling distributions, it has been estimated that many northern tree species could possibly migrate northward at a rate of 60 miles per century.

Evidence indicates that an increase in temperature and greater moisture stress will lead to increases in these kinds of stressors, but research to date has examined only a few species. Invasive species are already a persistent and growing challenge across much of the United States. Changes may exacerbate this problem, as warmer temperatures may allow some invasive plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north. Northern Minnesota may lose some of the protection offered by a traditionally cold climate and short growing season.