Non-Forested Wetlands

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass under a range of future climate scenarios. Species projected to increase include American chestnut, black oak, chestnut oak, mockernut hickory, northern red oak, pignut hickory, pitch pine, scarlet oak, shortleaf pine, Virginia pine, and white oak. These species all tolerate relatively warm and dry conditions, however, extremes in heat or drought may exceed even the tolerances of pines and oaks.

Many species are tolerant of drought or moisture stress, but may not tolerate more extreme or longer periods of moisture stress, especially during periods of hotter temperatures. A combination of hot days and low moisture is expected to exceed the tolerance of of sugar maple, aspen, and other associates for seedling establishment. Drought may also stress mature trees, leading to mortality of mesic species and shifting the species composition to oaks and pines.

Low to moderate fire intensity may benefit oak and pine species, but high-intensity fire can be fatal to trees.Many species tolerate or are adapted to dry soil conditions and fire, although young trees may be sensitive to severe drought and high-intensity fire. A history of fire suppression and increasing shade in the forest understory has facilitated shifts to more mesic conditions in some places and has promoted northern hardwood species like red maple, American beech, and tulip tree.

This diverse forest community occurs over a wide range of habitats and is widespread and common throughout the interior portion of the Mid-Atlantic region. In general, areas that are north-facing, at higher elevations, or are farther north in the region are expected to undergo less change compared to forests in warmer, drier, or more southerly locations, particularly where past land use, land development, fragmentation, invasive species, or other factors have already impaired the system.

River flow and hydrology in the coastal plain have been altered by channelization, road networks, development, and a variety of land use changes, and these changes may inhibit the expansion of wetlands in response to climate changes. Increased flooding may increase pollution, runoff, and discharge from farm land and concentrated animal feed lots.

As tidal forests lose habitat, they may potentially replace nontidal riverine and lowland forests in areas where soils become saturated or seasonally inundated

There are many invasive plant species, insect pests, and forest diseases that have negative impacts on tidal swamp forests, many of which are expected to increase through the direct and indirect effects of climate change.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that many tidal swamp species are likely to maintain or increase in suitable habitat and biomass during the 21st century. Green ash species is threatened by Emerald Ash Borer and is expected to decline significantly from the borer during the next several decades.

As sea level rises, increasing salinity levels may interact with other stressors, and the salt tolerance of individual trees may factor into tree response. Of the dominant species in tidal swamp, only baldcypress and green ash are resistant to salt spray.

Rising sea levels are increasing storm surge and flooding, and this may become an even greater problem as storms become more frequent or severe.Shifting sands may alter soil characteristics, destabilize root systems, and cause erosion. Tidal forest that undergoes salinization exceeding its tolerance may be replaced by tidal marsh. However, shorelines are expected to recede as the sea level rises, resulting in the physical loss of land and habitat for this community type.