Recreation

Multiple factors may contribute to increasing drought risk across the Midwest. Trends of higher temperatures, longer growing seasons, and more multi-day periods without rainfall may have compounding effects. Additionally, vapor pressure deficit (the difference between how much moisture is in the air and the amount of moisture the air can hold at saturation) is projected to increase by 20-80% by the end of the century across a range of climate scenarios. This will lead to a net drying effect as the air draws more moisture out of plants and soil.

Although more rainfall is expected overall, warming temperatures will increase evaporative demand, leading to more frequent and severe drought in the future. Some of the negative effects of drying may be offset by the increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, which can stimulate plant growth and increase water-use efficiency. Soil water availability during the growing season is expected to increase for the northern parts of this region, and decrease in southern parts.