Forest Carbon Management

Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species. Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group speices. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment will increase for shortleaf pine, particularly in the Missouri Ozarks. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, which could lead to negative effects on shortleaf pine, particularly in highly dense stands.

One forest impact model suggests habitat suitability will decrease for shagbark hickory under multiple scenarios.

This type is common on excessively well-drained soils with steeper slopes than open woodlands. Even if conditions become much drier during the summer or fall, as is projected under some scenarios, the species in the system should be able to adapt to those changes.

This community type is characterized by frequent, low-intensity fires, which are expected to become more common as conditions become warmer and drier later in the growing season. However, if fire severity increases too greatly, fire could have a negative impact.

Flatwoods are strongly tied to geologic and soil conditions that result in seasonal flooding and drought, which make them tolerant of a wide range of disturbances, but also unable to expand to new areas and relatively low in diversity.

Woody plant encroachment, a major stressor in this system, is largely the result of fire suppression. As conditions become more favorable for fire by the end of the century, a reduction in woody plant encroachment could occur, depending on management actions and the fragmented nature of the landscape.

Current stressors to this system include invasion of the understory by woody plants, reed canarygrass, and fescue. In the short term, increases in CO2 could make conditions more favorable for common invasive cool-season grasses like reed canarygrass and fescue in flatwoods. However, increases in temperature coupled with decreases in water availability during summer could have negative impacts on these species toward the end of the century.

The model projections presented for the species that dominate this system are for the entire assessment area, and may not reflect the trajectories of the individuals in this uncommon community type. With that caveat in mind, the projected trajectories are similar across the range of climate models presented.

The model projections presented for the species that dominate this system are for the entire assessment area, and may not reflect the trajectories of the individuals in this uncommon community type. With that caveat in mind, the projected trajectories are similar across the range of climate models presented.