Forest Carbon Management

These species all tolerate a fairly wide range of conditions. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase or remain stable in suitable habitat and biomass under a mild climate scenario, but these species are all expected to fare worse under a hotter, drier future climate scenario.

Barrens and savanna communities are currently rare and highly fragmented; many lack a healthy herbaceous community. Even if changes in climate favor a more barrens or savanna-like structure, some of the understory species may not be there to colonize new areas.

Models suggests droughts may increase in area and duration. Common drought-tolerant invasive species in barrens and savannas include autumn olive, multiflora rose, teasel, white and yellow sweetclover, sericea lespideza, and spotted knapweed. Garlic mustard is among the few invasive plant species in barrens and savannas that is not drought-tolerant

Forest impacts models do not project a substantial change in habitat suitability for eastern redcedar under a range of climate scenarios. However, eastern redcedar is already expanding in the area due to fire suppression and will likely expand further.

These are boreal species near their southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.

Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for black and chinquapin oak. Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for black and chiquapin oak.

Multiple impact models agree that these species will do well under a range of climate scenarios. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, posing a threat to shortleaf pine, especially in dense stands.

Upland spruce-fir forests can persist on droughty, nutrient-poor sites and they regerate well after disturbance such as fire. These traits may allow upland spruce-fir forests to tolerate a moderate amount of climate change and disturbance. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common in the Northwoods by the end of the century. Increases in stand-replacing wildfire could provide opportunities for regeneration where conditions remain suitable for the dominant species.

Models suggest that fire risk may increase by the end of the century. The trees and understory herbaceous species in barrens and savannas are adapted to frequent fire. If fires increase, this could decrease competition with less fire-tolerant species. However, if fires become too severe or frequent, conditions could favor a grassland community devoid of trees.

Models suggests droughts may increase in area and duration. Barrens communities develop on extremely shallow, well-drained soils, making them well adapted to drought conditions. However, the low water-holding capacity typical of soils in barrens communities could increase stress under extreme drought conditions. Savanna communities, which are similar in structure to barrens, are characterized by deeper, more nutrient-rich soils and may be more buffered against drought.