Forest Carbon Management

Model projections that show future changes in habitat for many tree species do not account for migration constraints, longevity of current species, or differences among age classes. Because mature trees are expected to remain on the landscape, and recruitment of new species is expected to be limited, major shifts in species composition will not likely be observed by the middle of the century, except along ecoregional boundaries and in areas that undergo major stand-replacing disturbance events.

Climate change impacts are more likely to be observed in seedlings and early growth than in mature trees. Temperature and moisture requirements for seed dormancy and germination are often much more critical than habitat requirements of an adult tree. Predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, growing season onset, and soil moisture may alter the duration or manifestation of germination conditions, and individual species will be uniquely affected.

Changes in distribution for individual species is expected to lead to shifts in forest assemblages and tree species may rearrange into novel communities.Major shifts in overstory species composition may not be observable until well into the 21st century because of the long time frames associated with many ecosystem processes and responses to climate change. These shifts, however, may become more apparent along ecotones where boreal species reach the southern edge of their range.

Model projections that show future changes in habitat for many tree species do not account for migration constraints, longevity of current species, or differences among age classes. Because mature trees are expected to remain on the landscape, and recruitment of new species is expected to be limited, major shifts in species composition will not likely be observed by the middle of the century, except along ecotonal boundaries and in areas that undergo major stand-replacing disturbance events.

The uncertainty of future precipitation patterns makes it difficult to determine whether conditions may become dry enough to increase moisture stress for plants in the Northeast. Forests that are affected by moisture deficits and drought are more likely to experience reduced tree vigor or increased mortality, both of which can affect forest composition and structure. Further, warmer temperatures can drive or enhance drought-induced mortality by disrupting plant physiology . This “hotter drought” can also interact with other forest stressors to cause tree death and forest die-off .

The loss of a traditionally cold climate and short growing season in the region may allow some insect pests and pathogens to expand their ranges northward such as hemlock woolly adelgid and southern pine beetle. Forest impacts from insect pests and pathogens are generally more severe in ecosystems that are stressed by drought and other stressors. Basic information is often lacking on the climatic thresholds that trigger increased populations of many forest pests, and our ability to predict the mechanisms of infection, dispersal, and transmission for disease agents remains low.

The uncertainty of future precipitation patterns makes it difficult to determine whether conditions may become dry enough to increase moisture stress for plants in the Northeast. Forests that are affected by moisture deficits and drought are more likely to experience reduced tree vigor or increased mortality, both of which can affect forest composition and structure. Further, warmer temperatures can drive or enhance drought-induced mortality by disrupting plant physiology . This “hotter drought” can also interact with other forest stressors to cause tree death and forest die-off.