Forested watershed

Forested watershed

Taxonomy Machine Name
strategy_forested_watershed
Taxonomy Alias
forested_watershed
Disabled

Model projections are limited for most dominant species, but tend to project increases in suitable habitat for many species in the small stream riparian forest ecosystem.

Submitted by dshannon on

Many riverine species in this forest type were modeled only by the Tree Atlas; thus evidence is somewhat limited regarding dominant species. Suitable habitat is projected to remain stable or increase for sycamore, river birch, black walnut, and boxelder. Silver maple is projected to decrease under low climate scenarios and increase under high climate scenarios. Hemlock and red maple were modeled by all three models.

Wildfire potential could increase under drier conditions to negatively impact the small stream riparian forest ecosystem.

Submitted by dshannon on

Wildfire, currently episodic and human-caused, could increase under drier conditions, although the extent would be limited by the fragmented nature of small stream ecosystems. Mortality and damage from drought or storms may result in increased coarse woody debris, contributing to wildfire fuels.

Projected decreases in precipitation in late summer and fall may increase the frequency or extent of drought in small stream riparian forest ecosystems.

Submitted by dshannon on

Potential changes to the precipitation regime could intensify peak stream flow and shift the timing to earlier in the spring. Reduced precipitation in the summer and fall would result in drier conditions, increasing the potential for late-summer drought. Moisture deficits have the potential to create dry vegetation conditions late in the growing season, stressing hydrophilic seedlings and supporting wildfire conditions. Drought-stressed trees may be more susceptible to diseases such as thousand cankers and elm yellows, and insect pests such as hemlock woolly adelgid.

Increases in storm intensity and flooding events have the potential to increase soil erosion and sedimentation in small stream riparian forest ecosystems.

Submitted by dshannon on

Episodic precipitation is likely to result in more intense storms, and subsequent flooding events. Although this ecosystem is highly dependent on disturbance and a regular influx of seeds, nutrients, and water during periodic flooding, increases in flood intensity or more frequent drought may not be tolerated by many species, especially in the early growth stages. Many riverine species in this forest type depend on high moisture availability, and are especially threatened by discrete periods of dry soil conditions.

Herbivory is already a major stressor in the north-central interior beech/maple forest ecosystem and is expected to become more damaging through the end of the century.

Submitted by dshannon on

Heavy deer browsing is also limiting seedling establishment and growth, and protection from herbivory will be critical in establishing regeneration, now and under future climate conditions.

Many invasive plant species currently threaten the north-central interior beech/maple forest ecosystem and are expected to be able to take advantage of climate change to outcompete native species.

Submitted by dshannon on

Invasive plants such as princesstree, silktree, ailanthus, and glossy buckthorn compete directly with understory plants and native tree regeneration and these invasives are likely to take advantage of increased temperatures and disturbance.

Certain insects, such as hemlock woolly adelgid, may benefit from warmer winter temperatures, creating additional stress for the north-central interior beech/maple forest ecosystem.

Submitted by dshannon on

Beech bark disease, emerald ash borer, hemlock woolly adelgid, anthracnose disease, and a variety of other pests and pathogens currently affect this ecosystem. The emerald ash borer has already reduced the white ash component in parts of the assessment area.

Wildfire potential could increase under drier conditions to negatively impact the north-central interior beech/maple forest ecosystem.

Submitted by dshannon on

This system is intolerant of fire, and is characterized by long disturbance intervals. An increase in wildfire could promote transition to primarily fire-adapted species (e.g., oaks), changing the identity of this ecosystem.

Heavy-textured soils and glacial landforms help retain soil moisture.

Submitted by dshannon on

This forest occurs largely within the lake-effect zone of Lake Erie, where this forest’s position on glacial till floodplains, moraines, and plateaus promotes and preserves moist soil conditions, a critical feature which may help buffer the impacts of changing temperature and hydrologic regimes on mature trees.