Agriculture

Temperatures in the Central Appalachians region (and across the broader Northeast) are projected to increase on average by 5.27 to 9.11 °F by the end of the century (2070 to 2099), with the greatest warming expected to occur during summer and fall. More warming (9.11 °F) is projected under a high climate scenario (RCP 8.5) and more moderate warming (5.27 °F) is projected under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5). Studies from across the Midwest and Northeast consistently project 20 to 30 more hot days per year by the end of the century.

At a global scale, the scientific consensus is that fire risk will increase by 10 to 30 percent due to higher summer temperatures and occasional increased periods of droughts. Projections for the central United States show low agreement among climate models on changes in fire probability in the near term, but the majority of models project an increase in wildfire probability by the end of the century . Fire seasons in the southeastern United States could nearly double in length and increase in severity.

Heavy precipitation events have already been increasing in number and severity in the area, and some models suggest an increase over the next century .

Evidence at both global and local scales indicates that growing seasons have been getting longer, and this trend is projected to become even more pronounced over the next century. As seasons shift so that spring arrives earlier and fall extends later into the year, phenology may shift for plant species that rely on temperature as a cue for the timing of leaf-out, reproductive maturation, and other developmental processes. Longer growing seasons could also result in greater growth and productivity of trees and other vegetation, but only if balanced by available water and nutrients.

The Central Hardwoods Region is already experiencing a decline in snowfall, depth, and cover. Decreased snowfall and increased snowmelt from higher temperatures are projected to decrease the amount of snow on the ground in the region, and may make some locations snow-free in some years. In recent years, this reduction in snow cover has led to an increase in soil frost from decreased snow insulation.

Hydrologic modeling based on a range of climate models and scenarios suggests an increase in soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow thoughout the next century. The magnitude or frequency of flooding could potentially increase in the winter and spring due to increases in total runoff and peak streamflow during those time periods.

The vast majority of model projections for the Central Hardwoods Region are in agreement that there will be an increase in precipitation in winter and spring.

All global climate models project that temperatures will increase with continued increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Heavy precipitation events have been increasing in number and severity in the upper Midwest in general and for Michigan in particular, and many models agree that this trend will continue over the next century. For example, storms in the 99th-percentile category incrased by 42% from 1958 to 2016 across the Midwest. Large storms are also expected to deliver more rainfall as well. In the Midwest, 20-year return storms are projected to deliver 11 to 20% more rainfall by the end of the century. Most heavy precipitation events occur during summer in the Upper Midwest.

Evidence at both global and local scales indicates that growing seasons have been getting longer, and this trend is projected to become even more pronounced over the next century. As seasons shift so that spring arrives earlier and fall extends later into the year, phenology may shift for plant species that rely on temperature as a cue for the timing of leaf-out, reproductive maturation, and other developmental processes. Longer growing seasons could also result in greater growth and productivity of trees and other vegetation, but only if balanced by available water and nutrients.