Agriculture
Agriculture strategies/approaches.
Taxonomy Machine Name
niacs_strategy_ag
Taxonomy Alias
ag
Damage from hurricanes and sea-level rise is expected to increase in the Southeast by the end of the century.
Global sea level rise is projected to rise between 1 and 4 feet by the end of the century. Sea level rise and related increases in storm surges pulsing farther inland will continue to exacerbate ongoing land loss in low-lying coastal areas and may result in excessive saltwater inundation of coastal forests. The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased since the 1980s, and this trend can be attributed both to natural variability and climate change.
Widlfire risk is projected to increase across the Southeast by the end of the century.
Rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire in the Southeast. While this region experiences the highest number of wildfires in the country, prescribed fire is currently more common than wildfire in Southeastern forests. However, as fire seasons lengthen in the future, the window for prescribed burning may decrease because of increased fuel flammability.
The annual freeze-free season is expected to increase by 20 to 30 days in the Southeast by 2055. The freeze-free season lengthens by more than a month by the late 21st century in climate simulations based on a high emissions scenario.
The freeze-free season is defined as the period of time between the last spring frost (daily minimum temperature below 32 degrees F) and the first fall frost. The length of the annual freeze-free season has been increasing since the 1980s, and all climate models agree that it will continue to increase in the future across the Southeast. The largest increases of 25-30 days are mainly expected in Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina.
A majority of climate models suggest that precipitation in the Southeast will increase in the winter, spring, and fall by the end of the century, but summer is generally expected to become drier.
Simulated changes in summer precipitation by the end of the century range from a 0-10% decrease, with the largest decreases occurring in southern Florida and Arkansas and Tennessee. The means of several climate models indicate that winter and spring precipitation may increase around 15% by the end of the century, particularly in the northern part of the region. Daily precipitation totals in the Southeast have increased substantially in the fall season; this trend is expected to continue, with the greatest expected increases along the Gulf Coast.
The number of days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation will increase across the Southeast by the middle of the century, and double the number of heavy rainfall events are projected by late century.
Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in the Southeast, and will continue to increase in the future. Most of the region is projected to experience 6% to 25% more days each year with more than an inch of precipitation by the middle of the century. The largest increases (up to 25% increases) in extreme precipitation are expected across the Appalachian Mountains. The smallest increases (less than 10%) are expected across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Average annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly in the northeast portion of the Southeast, but may decrease in the southwest half of the region.
There is uncertainty between different climate scenarios for future precipitation projections in the Southeast. Generally, there is a southwest-to-northeast gradient in annual precipitation projections. The greatest increases are projected in North Carolina and Virginia (3-9% increase by the end of the century), and the greatest decreases are projected in Louisiana and Arkansas (3-12% decrease by the end of the century). Overall changes in precipitation for the Southeast are projected to be slight and comparable to current year-to-year variations.
The Southeast is expected to experience between 0 and 14 fewer days per year with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.
The largest decreases are expected in Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina and the northern part of Arkansas. The smallest decreases in cold days are expected along the coastal and southern areas, where these kinds of cold days rarely occur. Similarly, the Southeast region is expected to have more than 20 fewer days with a minimum temperature below 32 degrees by the middle of the century.
The Southeast is expected to experience between 5 and 30 more days per year with a maximum temperature exceeding 95 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.
The smallest increase of 4 days per year is expected in areas with a currently low number of 95-degree days, including the highest elevation areas along the spine of the Appalachians where historically days above 95-degrees occur fewer than 10 days out of the year. The largest increase in the number of 95-degree days per year (35 days) is expected in south-central Florida, where these kinds of hot days are already common. The western portion of the region is expected to experience the largest number of consecutive 95-degree days, with as many as 16-20 additional days by mid-century.