Forest [FAR1]

In the Upper Midwest, the duration of frozen ground conditions suitable for winter harvest operations has already shortened by 2 to 3 weeks in the past 70 years. Cold-season soil temperatures are projected to increase between 1.8 and 5.4 °F by the end of the century, and total frost depth is projected to deline by 40 to 80 percent across northern Michigan by the end of the century. These conditions could increase water infiltration into the soil and reduce runoff, but they may also lead to greater soil water losses through increased evapotranspiration.

A variety of models project that across the Upper Midwest, more winter precipitation will be delivered as rain, more snow will melt between snowfall events, and the snowpack will not be as deep or consistent. Lake-effect snowfall may increase in the short-term, but these events may convert to rain as temperatures increase.

Northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula have already warmed more than 1.5 degrees since the first half of the 20th century, which is one of the fastest rates of warming across the country. All global climate models project that temperatures will increase with continued increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. More warming is projected under a high climate scenario (RCP 8.5) and more moderate warming is projected under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5).

Northern Michigan has already warmed more than 1.5 degrees since the first half of the 20th century, which is one of the fastest rates of warming across the country. All global climate models project that temperatures will increase with continued increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. More warming is projected under a high climate scenario (RCP 8.5) and more moderate warming is projected under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5).