Forest [FAR1] | Adaptation Workbook

American beech and black walnut, common in mesic bottomland forests, are projected to decline in habitat suitability by the end of the century.

Read more about American beech and black walnut, common in mesic bottomland forests, are projected to decline in habitat suitability by the end of the century.

Habitat suitability is expected to remain stable for bitternut hickory, sycamore, and white oak in mesic bottomland forests through the end of the century.

The models available are not equipped to capture the complex hydrologic processes that occur in these systems, so actual habitat suitability might differ from what is projected. With that caveat in mind, multiple models models tend to agree about the general trajectory of the dominant species in these systems.Some models and scenarios suggest a decrease in habitat suitability or establishment for white oak, but since it is a long-lived species that can tolerate a wide variety of stressors no large changes in white oak are expected over the next several decades.

Read more about Habitat suitability is expected to remain stable for bitternut hickory, sycamore, and white oak in mesic bottomland forests through the end of the century.

Habitat suitability is expected to increase for sweetgum and eastern cottonwood by the end of the century, which are common species in mesic bottomland forests.

Read more about Habitat suitability is expected to increase for sweetgum and eastern cottonwood by the end of the century, which are common species in mesic bottomland forests.

A projected increase in heavy precipitation in the winter and spring in the coming decades could have a negative impact on mesic bottomland forests.

This system is characterized by short, infrequent floods. Extended wet periods could increase both the frequency and duration of flooding, which many species would not be able to tolerate.

Read more about A projected increase in heavy precipitation in the winter and spring in the coming decades could have a negative impact on mesic bottomland forests.

A high soil water-holding capacity in many locations might allow mesic upland forests to persist on the landscape.

Mesic upland forests tend to have a thick litter layer and high soil organic matter, allowing them to retain moisture. This can help protect them from drying and wildfire during short periods of reduced precipitation.

Read more about A high soil water-holding capacity in many locations might allow mesic upland forests to persist on the landscape.

Some invasive plant species common in mesic upland forests, such as bush honeysuckle and kudzu, may benefit from warmer temperatures.

Some models suggest an increase in habitat suitability for kudzu, due to milder winters and a longer growing season. It is hypothesized that nonnative plant species such as these will fill in the gaps created as dominant species decline.

Read more about Some invasive plant species common in mesic upland forests, such as bush honeysuckle and kudzu, may benefit from warmer temperatures.

Bitternut hickory, red maple, and white oak are among the few species in mesic upland forests for which conditions may continue to be favorable in some areas throughout the rest of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are likely to retain suitable habitat and establishment across a range of climate scenarios into the end of the century.

Read more about Bitternut hickory, red maple, and white oak are among the few species in mesic upland forests for which conditions may continue to be favorable in some areas throughout the rest of the century.

Habitat suitability for many of the mesic upland forest's dominant species, such as sugar maple, beech, basswood, and white ash, is projected to decline by the end of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment of sugar maple will decrease, with complete losses of suitable habitat in the Missouri Ozarks, and a reduction in suitable habitat in the eastern part of the region. Models also suggest decreases for American beech, basswood, and white ash across multiple scenarios.

Read more about Habitat suitability for many of the mesic upland forest's dominant species, such as sugar maple, beech, basswood, and white ash, is projected to decline by the end of the century.

The increased risk of wildfire projected by the end of the century could have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

Most of the dominant species in mesic upland forests are not adapted to fire, and could be top-killed or experience other damaging effects if fires occur. However, the nature of the litter layer may protect this system from fire to some extent.

Read more about The increased risk of wildfire projected by the end of the century could have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

A projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation during the growing season is expected to have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.

Mesic upland forests are adapted to cooler, wetter conditions that are typical of north-facing slopes and ravines. Since they already occupy the coolest, wettest positions on the landscape, there is nowhere else for them to migrate.

Read more about A projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation during the growing season is expected to have negative impacts on mesic upland forests.