Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.
Models suggest an increase in fire risk by the end of the century due to increases in temperature and potential decreases in precipitation. If fires become more common, species in glades will likely benefit because they can tolerate fire better than more mesic species.
This community type develops on areas of exposed bedrock with very thin soils. Many species found in glades are more characteristic of areas south and west of the Central hardwoods region, which are much warmer and drier. All climate models agree conditions will become warmer, and dry conditions are possible in the summer or fall.
Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases. The possibility exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in the Upper Midwest.
This boreal species is already near its southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that jack pine is likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Red pine is also projected to decline in biomass and suitable habitat, particularly under hotter, drier climate scenarios. Overall, low species diversity gives this forest type few alternatives if conditions shift beyond tolerable limits
Jack pine has evolved to thrive with regular wildfire. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common by the end of the century. Greater wildfire activity could be positive for these forest types, but too much change to the fire regime might hamper regeneration and cause these forests to shift to barrens. The window of opportunity for applying prescribed fire to jack pine forests may shift under future climate change, but it is unclear if it would expand the potential to use fire as a management tool.
Jack pine forests can thrive on droughty, nutrient-poor sites. These traits may allow jack pine forests to tolerate a moderate amount of moisture stress and disturbance due to climate change. Under future drier conditions, this forest type may gain territory that is currently more mesic. Alternatively, the potential also exists for warmer temperatures to accelerate litter layer decomposition in these forests, leading to lower water-holding capacity and greater moisture stress. These conditions could prompt a shift to barrens systems in some locations.
Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases.
These species all tolerate a fairly wide range of conditions. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase or remain stable in suitable habitat and biomass under a mild climate scenario, but these species are all expected to fare worse under a hotter, drier future climate scenario.
Barrens and savanna communities are currently rare and highly fragmented; many lack a healthy herbaceous community. Even if changes in climate favor a more barrens or savanna-like structure, some of the understory species may not be there to colonize new areas.
Models suggests droughts may increase in area and duration. Common drought-tolerant invasive species in barrens and savannas include autumn olive, multiflora rose, teasel, white and yellow sweetclover, sericea lespideza, and spotted knapweed. Garlic mustard is among the few invasive plant species in barrens and savannas that is not drought-tolerant
