Forest [FAR1]

All global climate models agree that sea level will rise. Sea levels have increased over the past century, and this trend is expected to continue. At the current rate of increase, sea levels could rise nearly 6 inches by the end of the century across the Northeast, which is a conservative estimate. Additional warming is expected to increase sea levels in the Northeast by 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century.

The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at risk due to high rates of sinking land (known as subsidence) Climate change and sea level rise are also likely to cause a number of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and changing interactions among trophic levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

Changes in climate may allow some nonnative plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north as the climate warms and the region loses some of the protection offered by a traditionally cold climate and short growing season. The abundance and distribution of some nonnative plant species may be able to increase directly in response to a warmer climate and also indirectly through increased invasion of stressed or disturbed forests.