Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species (northern red, scarlet, and black oak). Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group speices. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.