Habitat suitability for shortleaf pine, a common species in dry-mesic forests in Missouri, is projected to increase across the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment will increase for shortleaf pine, particularly in the Missouri Ozarks. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, which could lead to negative effects on shortleaf pine, particularly in highly dense stands.