Southern species in The Central Hardwoods region will be favored by climate change.

Model results suggest an increase in suitable habitat for many species at or near the northern extent of their current range, including shortleaf pine, post oak, and blackjack oak. In addition, habitat may become favorable to species not currently found in the assessment area, such as loblolly pine. However, habitat fragmentation and the limited dispersal ability of seeds are expected to hinder the northward movement of the more southerly species despite the increase in habitat suitability. Most species can be expected to migrate more slowly than their habitats will shift. Indeed, in a simulation for five species, only a maximum of 15 percent of newly suitable habitat would have much of a chance of getting colonized over 100 years.