Southern or temperate species in northern Minnesota will be favored by climate change.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Impact models agree that many temperate species will experience increasing suitable habitat and biomass across the assessment area, and that longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will lead to productivity increases for temperate forest types. The list of species projected to increase includes American basswood, black cherry, bur oak, eastern white pine, red maple, white oak, and a variety of minor southern species. Models also indicate that deciduous forest types have the potential for large productivity increases across northern Minnesota. In addition, suitable habitat may become available for species not currently found in northern Minnesota (e.g., shagbark hickory, eastern hemlock, and swamp white oak) by the end of the century. Habitat fragmentation, dispersal limitations, and deer herbivory could hinder the northward movement of southern species, despite the increase in habitat suitability. Most species can be expected to migrate more slowly than their habitats will shift. Pests and diseases such as emerald ash borer and Dutch elm disease are also expected to limit some species projected to increase.

Evidence
Agreement