Native forests in the Pacific may be vulnerable to climate change, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and high-elevation alpine areas.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Existing climate zones on high islands are generally projected to shift upslope in response to climate change. The ability of native species to adapt to shifting habitats will be affected by ecosystem discontinuity and fragmentation, as well as the survival or extinction of pollinators and seed dispersers. Some (perhaps many) invasive plant species will have a competitive edge over native species, as they disproportionately benefit from increased carbon dioxide, disturbances from extreme weather and climate events, and an ability to invade higher elevation habitats as climates warm. Hawaiian high-elevation alpine ecosystems on Hawai‘i and Maui islands are already beginning to show strong signs of higher temperatures and increased drought. For example, the number of Haleakalā silversword, a rare plant that is an integral component of the alpine ecosystem in Haleakalā National Park in Maui and is found nowhere else on the planet, has declined dramatically over the past two decades. Similarly, low-lying coastal forests are most vulnerable to seawater innundation and damage from increased storm surges.