Urban Forest Health

Urban Forest Health

Taxonomy Machine Name
sector_urban_forest_health
Taxonomy Alias
urban_forest_health
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Temperatures in the Midwest are projected to increase by 5.6 to 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century (2071-2100).

Submitted by sdhandler on

The Midwest has already warmed by about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit since the first half of the 20th century. Climate models agree that temperatures are projected to increase over the 21st century across the Midwest. By mid-century (2036-2065), average annual temperature is expected to increase by 4.2 to 5.3 degrees, Fahrenheit. By the end of the century (2071-2100), temperatures in the Midwest are projected to increase by 5.6 to 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

Sea levels along the Northeast Atlantic coast are expected to rise by 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century.

Submitted by dshannon on

All global climate models agree that sea level will rise. Sea levels have increased over the past century, and this trend is expected to continue. At the current rate of increase, sea levels could rise nearly 6 inches by the end of the century across the Northeast, which is a conservative estimate. Additional warming is expected to increase sea levels in the Northeast by 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century.

As sea levels rise, the Chesapeake Bay region is expected to experience an increase in coastal flooding and inundation of estuarine wetlands.

Submitted by dshannon on

The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at risk due to high rates of sinking land (known as subsidence) Climate change and sea level rise are also likely to cause a number of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and changing interactions among trophic levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.

North Atlantic hurricanes will increase in frequency, and intensity during 21st century.

Submitted by dshannon on

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

Many invasive plant species, insect pests, and pathogens in the Northeast will increase or become more damaging due to climate change.

Submitted by dshannon on

Changes in climate may allow some nonnative plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north as the climate warms and the region loses some of the protection offered by a traditionally cold climate and short growing season. The abundance and distribution of some nonnative plant species may be able to increase directly in response to a warmer climate and also indirectly through increased invasion of stressed or disturbed forests.

Timing of critical biological events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted in the Northeast.

Submitted by dshannon on

Peer reviewed multi-decadal studies have documented an advance in springtime phenological events of species in response to climate warming. Evidence suggests that insect emergence from overwintering may become out of sync with pollen sources, and that the beginning of bird and fish migrations are also shifting.

Northeast forest productivity may increase due to climate change during this century.

Submitted by dshannon on

Model projections and other evidence support modest productivity increases for forests across the northeast under climate change, although there is uncertainty about the effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization. Warmer temperatures are expected to speed nutrient cycling and increase photosynthetic rates for most tree species in the Northeast. Longer growing seasons could also result in greater growth and productivity of trees and other vegetation, but only if sufficient water and nutrients are available.