Forest

These are northern species near their southern range limits in New England and northern New York. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.

This forest system contains several tree species that are tolerant of warmer temperatures and are located in the central to northern portion of their range in New England and northern New York. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species, such as sugar maple and eastern white pine are likely to increase or remain stable in suitable habitat and biomass under a mild climate scenario but may fare worse under a hotter, drier future climate scenario.

This forest type is often located in areas that have (or have had) higher levels of human disturbance; fragmentation, invasive species, or other stressors may have reduced the capacity of forests in some locations to cope with changing conditions. Further, trends toward more mesic tree species and a lack of future-adapted regeneration species like oak may reduce adaptive capacity.

Climate change may amplify several major stressors that are already affecting this forest system. Several pests, including beech bark disease, gypsy moth, and hemlock woolly adelgid, currently affect many forests, and there is a disproportionately large impact on forest systems where hemlock is lost. Studies suggest that insect pests may increase in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Insect pests, such as the hemlock woolly adelgid, are expected to cause more frequent and severe damage under climate change.

These forests tend to have fairly high species diversity, which may increase the number of ways in which the ecosystem can adjust to changing conditions while maintaining important ecosystem functions. These forests are also found across a variety of landforms and local conditions and contain a mix of shade and moisture tolerances and reproductive strategies (e.g., seeding, sprouting). Species composition may change over time to reflect future conditions, and may ultimately transition to oak-pine forests in some locations.

These species all tolerate a fairly wide range of conditions. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase or remain stable in suitable habitat and biomass under a mild climate scenario, but these species may fare worse under a hotter, drier future climate scenario. Red maple is not modeled to change substantially, but its current abundance, biological traits, and ability to respond to disturbance suggest that it may increase.