Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment of sugar maple will decrease, with complete losses of suitable habitat in the Missouri Ozarks, and a reduction in suitable habitat in the eastern part of the region.
Dry-mesic forests are the most common community type in the Central Hardwoods region and contain a wide variety of species. Any declines in this community type on drier sites may be offset by transition from more mesic forests to this type.
Most invasive species are expected to benefit or see no detrimental effects of climate change. However, one of the many invasive plants, garlic mustard, is relatively drought-intolerant and could decrease if conditions become significantly drier during the growing season.
Some models and scenarios suggest a decrease in habitat suitability or establishment for white oak, but since it is a long-lived species that can tolerate a wide variety of stressors, such as drought and fire, no large changes in white oak are expected over the next several decades.
Forest impact models with scenarios and models that project a greater increase in warming and drier summers tend to suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for red oak group species (northern red, scarlet, and black oak). Forest impact models with scenarios and models with milder increases in temperature and wetter summers tend to suggest that conditions will be favorable for red oak group speices. Oak decline is expected to remain a threat to the red oak group, and may become a larger threat to trees that become stressed by increased drought frequency.
Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that habitat suitability and establishment will increase for shortleaf pine, particularly in the Missouri Ozarks. However, southern pine beetle could also increase, which could lead to negative effects on shortleaf pine, particularly in highly dense stands.
Dry-mesic forests can tolerate some drying, but some of the more mesic species in the system may not be able to tolerate excessive moisture deficits
An increase in fire frequency is expected to have positive effects on overstory tree species, but may have negative impacts on the understory. If fires become too severe or frequent, this type could shift toward a woodland or savanna. However, some increase in fire may help reduce the dominance of sugar maple, which has increased compared to historic levels.
Glades are typically located on hilltops on rocky, extremely well-drained soils. They experience frequent low-intensity fires. Some scattered post oak and eastern redcedar are present, but they are dominated by herbaceous vegetation.
Both systems typically have 30% canopy cover or less with a well-developed herbaceous layers. Barrens are found on shallow, excessively well-drained soils, and savannas are found on deeper soils. Both experience frequent low-intensity fires. Dominant species include blackjack, post, black, white, chinquapin, chestnut, and bur oak; shagbark and black hickory; eastern redcedar, and shortleaf pine.
