Forest [FAR1] | Adaptation Workbook

Many dominant tree species in aspen-birch forests are expected to decline across northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan by the end of the century (balsam poplar, paper birch, and quaking aspen).

These are northern species near their southern range limits in northern Wisconsin. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Model results are mixed for balsam poplar and bigtooth aspen, but models agree that these species are not projected to increase substantially under future climate scenarios.

Read more about Many dominant tree species in aspen-birch forests are expected to decline across northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan by the end of the century (balsam poplar, paper birch, and quaking aspen).

Aspen-birch forests in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan may be tolerant of increased disturbance to climate change.

The early-successional characteristics of these species, including abundant wind-dispersed seed production and vegetative reproduction, make them highly resilient to many forms of disturbance. Disturbance from stand-replacing wildfire or wind events could benefit this forest type, although small-scale disturbances could increase the rate of succession to other forest types.

Read more about Aspen-birch forests in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan may be tolerant of increased disturbance to climate change.

Aspen-birch forests in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan may be vulnerable to temperature increases and moisture stress from climate change.

There is a greater likelihood of reduced soil moisture and enhanced evapotranspiration as the climate warms, especially late in the growing season. Drought stress and mortality may consequently increase, with the greatest risk on dry and poor-quality sites. Additionally, projected temperatures may be beyond the physiological limits of aspen and birch species by the end of the 21st century, particularly under hotter climate scenarios.

Read more about Aspen-birch forests in northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan may be vulnerable to temperature increases and moisture stress from climate change.

Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation in New England and northern New York will interact to change soil moisture patterns throughout the year, with the potential for both wetter and drier conditions depending on the location and season.

Soil moisture is expected to change in response to warmer temperatures and seasonal changes in precipitation. Changes are likely to vary seasonally as well as geographically. More intense and prolonged precipitation events would be expected to create wetter soil conditions, while increased temperatures and less frequent rainfall events would lead to drier soils .

Read more about Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation in New England and northern New York will interact to change soil moisture patterns throughout the year, with the potential for both wetter and drier conditions depending on the location and season.

Habitat will become more suitable in New England and northern New York for some southern species.

Model results project that species currently near their northern range limits in the region may become more abundant and more widespread under a range of climate futures.Results from forest impact models suggest that species such as black cherry, chestnut oak, and yellow-poplar may have increases in both suitable habitat and biomass, and some deciduous forest types have the potential for productivity increases across the assessment area.

Read more about Habitat will become more suitable in New England and northern New York for some southern species.

Many northern and boreal tree species will face increasing stress across much of New England and northern New York.

Across northern latitudes, warmer temperatures are expected to be more favorable to individuals near the northern extent of their species’ range and less favorable to those near the southern extent.Results from climate impact models project a decline in suitable habitat and landscape-level biomass for northern species such as black spruce, red spruce, tamarack, and paper birch, as well as spruce-fir forest communities. These northern species may persist in the region throughout the 21st century, although with declining vigor.

Read more about Many northern and boreal tree species will face increasing stress across much of New England and northern New York.

Many invasive plants will increase in extent or abundance in New England and northern New York.

Many invasive species that currently threaten regional forests may benefit directly from projected climate change or benefit from the relatively slower adaptation response of native species. Increases in carbon dioxide increase growth for many plant species, andcChanges in climate may have allowed some invasive plant species to expand their ranges northward, including bush honeysuckle, privet, and kudzu. Some invasive species are tolerant of drought, fire, flooding, and other disturbances and may be at an even greater advantage under future climate conditions.

Read more about Many invasive plants will increase in extent or abundance in New England and northern New York.

The timing and amount of stream flow is expected to change over then next century across New England and northern New York.

The shifts in winter precipitation and temperature described above are expected to alter several hydrological variables. Warmer temperatures are expected to accelerate the hydrologic cycle by reducing winter snow cover and shifting an increasing amount of runoff to winter and away from spring and summer. Researchers project that peak (winter/spring) streamflow may advance by 10 to greater than 15 days by the end of the century, with the greater shifts in the north due to the influence of snowmelt on streamflow.

Read more about The timing and amount of stream flow is expected to change over then next century across New England and northern New York.

The winter season will be shorter and milder across New England and northern New York, with less precipitation falling as snow and reduced snow cover and depth.

A variety of models project that winters will become more mild across New England and northern New York as temperatures increase. Warmer temperatures will cause more winter precipitation to be delivered as rain. Snowfall, snow depth, and snow pack duration are all expected to be reduced.

Read more about The winter season will be shorter and milder across New England and northern New York, with less precipitation falling as snow and reduced snow cover and depth.

Under the most probable scenarios, sea levels along the Northeast Atlantic coast are projected to rise between 2 feet and 4.5 feet (0.6 m and 1.4 m) on average in the region by 2100.

Shorter-term fluctuations in the variability of ocean dynamics, atmospheric shifts, and ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica have been connected to recent accelerations in the sea level rise rate in this region. Sea levels have risen over the past century, and all global climate models agree that sea level will rise over the next century. Worst-case and lowest-probability scenarios project that sea levels in the region could rise upwards of 11 feet (3 m) on average by the end of the century.

Read more about Under the most probable scenarios, sea levels along the Northeast Atlantic coast are projected to rise between 2 feet and 4.5 feet (0.6 m and 1.4 m) on average in the region by 2100.