Forest [FAR1]

Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.

Taxonomy Machine Name
niacs_strategy
Taxonomy Alias
far1

Conditions affecting tree regeneration and recruitment will change in New England and northern New York.

Submitted by Maria on

Climate change impacts are more likely to be observed in seedlings and early growth than in mature trees. Temperature and moisture requirements for seed dormancy and germination are often much more critical than habitat requirements of an adult tree. Predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, growing season onset, and soil moisture may alter the duration or manifestation of germination conditions, and individual species will be uniquely affected.

Forest composition will change across the landscape in New England and northern New York.

Submitted by Maria on

Changes in distribution for individual species is expected to lead to shifts in forest assemblages and tree species may rearrange into novel communities.Major shifts in overstory species composition may not be observable until well into the 21st century because of the long time frames associated with many ecosystem processes and responses to climate change. These shifts, however, may become more apparent along ecotones where boreal species reach the southern edge of their range.

Forest productivity in New England and northern New York will increase during the next several decades in the absence of significant stressors.

Submitted by Maria on

Model projections that show future changes in habitat for many tree species do not account for migration constraints, longevity of current species, or differences among age classes. Because mature trees are expected to remain on the landscape, and recruitment of new species is expected to be limited, major shifts in species composition will not likely be observed by the middle of the century, except along ecotonal boundaries and in areas that undergo major stand-replacing disturbance events.

Forest vegetation in New England and northern New York may face increased risk of moisture deficit and drought during the growing season.

Submitted by Maria on

The uncertainty of future precipitation patterns makes it difficult to determine whether conditions may become dry enough to increase moisture stress for plants in the Northeast. Forests that are affected by moisture deficits and drought are more likely to experience reduced tree vigor or increased mortality, both of which can affect forest composition and structure. Further, warmer temperatures can drive or enhance drought-induced mortality by disrupting plant physiology . This “hotter drought” can also interact with other forest stressors to cause tree death and forest die-off .

Certain insect pests and pathogens will increase in occurrence or become more damaging in New England and northern New York.

Submitted by Maria on

The loss of a traditionally cold climate and short growing season in the region may allow some insect pests and pathogens to expand their ranges northward such as hemlock woolly adelgid and southern pine beetle. Forest impacts from insect pests and pathogens are generally more severe in ecosystems that are stressed by drought and other stressors. Basic information is often lacking on the climatic thresholds that trigger increased populations of many forest pests, and our ability to predict the mechanisms of infection, dispersal, and transmission for disease agents remains low.

Forest vegetation may face increased risk of moisture deficit and drought during the growing season.

Submitted by Maria on

The uncertainty of future precipitation patterns makes it difficult to determine whether conditions may become dry enough to increase moisture stress for plants in the Northeast. Forests that are affected by moisture deficits and drought are more likely to experience reduced tree vigor or increased mortality, both of which can affect forest composition and structure. Further, warmer temperatures can drive or enhance drought-induced mortality by disrupting plant physiology . This “hotter drought” can also interact with other forest stressors to cause tree death and forest die-off.

Southern or temperate species are expected to be favored by climate change in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Model results project that species currently near their northern range limits in the region may become more abundant and more widespread under a range of climate futures. Results from forest impact models suggest that species such as bitternut hickory, black oak, bur oak, and white oak may have increases in both suitable habitat and biomass, and some deciduous forest types have the potential for productivity increases across the assessment area.

Northern and boreal species are expected to face increasing stress from climate change in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Across northern latitudes, warmer temperatures are expected to be more favorable to individuals near the northern extent of their species’ range and less favorable to those near the southern extent. Results from climate impact models project declines in suitable habitat and landscape-level biomass for northern and high elevation species such as black spruce, balsam fir, red spruce, and paper birch. Forest ecosystems dominated by boreal species, such as spruce-fir or paper birch, are consistently rated as the most vulnerable across numerous regional vulnerability assessments.

Many invasive species, insect pests, and pathogens in the Mid-Atlantic will increase or become more damaging.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Changes in climate may allow some nonnative plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north as the climate warms and the growing season increases. The abundance and distribution of some nonnative plant species may be able to increase directly in response to a warmer climate and also indirectly through increased invasion of stressed or disturbed forests. Similarly, forest pests and pathogens are generally able to respond rapidly to changes in climate and also disproportionately damage-stressed ecosystems.

Soil moisture patterns will change in the Mid-Atlantic with the potential for drier soil conditions later in the growing season.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Given that warmer temperatures and seasonal changes in precipitation are expected across the region, it is reasonable to expect that soil moisture regimes will also shift. Longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures would generally be expected to result in greater evapotranspiration losses and lower soil-water availability later in the growing season, thereby increasing moisture stress on forests. Further, increases in extreme rain events suggest that greater amounts of precipitation may occur during fewer precipitation events, resulting in longer periods between rainfall.