Southern oak and hickory species are likely to benefit from projected changes in climate.

Submitted by dshannon on

Suitable habitat was projected to increase for the southern oaks and hickories, whereas other common species are projected to persist over a smaller extent. Models project habitat suitability, basal area, trees per acre, and potential growth for pignut hickory and white oak to remain stable or increase slightly under both scenarios. Results for northern red oak suggest positive effects on regeneration where suitable habitat remains. Black oak is projected to remain stable under low climate scenarios, but under high climate scenarios suitable habitat is expected to increase while growth potential and trees per acre decrease. Mockernut hickory and shagbark hickory were modeled only by the Tree Atlas, and both are projected to increase in suitable habitat. Other common species are not expected to do as well, especially under high climate scenarios: suitable habitat, potential growth, and trees per acre will decrease for chestnut oak and scarlet oak.