Non-Forested Wetlands

The potential for climate change to increase the frequency of extended droughts poses a threat to these forests for multiple reasons, including increased moisture stress, wildfire occurrence, and susceptibility to other stress agents. Hardwood forests occurring on moist, rich soils may be buffered from short-term droughts or seasonal moisture stress. CO2 fertilization might also increase the water-use efficiency of some species, reducing the risk of moisture stress.

Longer growing seasons and milder winters might allow populations of native forest pests such as forest tent caterpillar to build more rapidly, and many pests have been shown to be more damaging when interacting with trees that are already stressed due to droughts or other impacts. The possibility also exists for new pests such as gypsy moth and Asian longhorn beetle to arrive in northern Minnesota.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. These forests also contain several species at their northern range limits, such as sugar maple and northern red oak, which may benefit from gene flow between southern populations.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. NPC Class MHn44 (Northern Wet-Mesic Boreal Hardwood-Conifer Forest) may be particularly vulnerable because this class contains boreal species such as quaking aspen, balsam fir, and paper birch.

Fire-Dependent Forests that contain a diversity of species, age classes, and structures may be more resilient to changing conditions than forests with few species and uniform age classes and structure. Diversity in all of these features can give a forest more possible pathways to respond to changing or unexpected conditions.

These forests are adapted to withstand wildfire, drought, pest outbreaks, and nutrient-poor soils. This lends them a competitive advantage and might allow them to be resilient to expected changes in climate.

Milder winters are generally expected to boost the deer population in the Northwoods.

The continued shift toward mesic species within Fire-Dependent Forests may be encouraged by climate change if fire suppression activities continue and broadleaf species like red maple continue to spread.

Longer growing seasons and milder winters might allow populations of native forest pests to build more rapidly, and many pests have been shown to be more damaging when interacting with trees that are already stressed due to droughts or other impacts. The possibility also exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in northern Minnesota.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.