Pitch pine-scrub oak
Forests and barrens dominated by pitch pine and scrub oak forests are found on xeric sites with deep, sandy soils. This is a fire-dependent system, where more frequent fires will promote pines.
Forested watershed
Forested watershed
Taxonomy Machine Name
strategy_forested_watershed
Taxonomy Alias
forested_watershed
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Montane spruce-fir
These forests occur at higher elevations (generally above 1500 feet) and are generally dominated by red spruce and balsam fir. They may also contain northern hardwood species, such as yellow birch or sugar maple.
Lowland mixed conifer
These forests typically have saturated soils, which may also be acidic or nutrient-poor. Conifer or mixed conifer-hardwood species include black spruce, red spruce, tamarack, balsam fir, eastern hemlock, and red maple.
Low-elevation spruce-fir
These forests are dominated by northern species that include red spruce, white spruce, and balsam fir. Site are typically at lower elevations in cold pockets, depressions, or valley bottoms. Hardwood species, such as yellow birch and red maple, may also be present.
Southern or temperate species are expected to be favored by climate change in the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Model results project that species currently near their northern range limits in the region may become more abundant and more widespread under a range of climate futures. Results from forest impact models suggest that species such as bitternut hickory, black oak, bur oak, and white oak may have increases in both suitable habitat and biomass, and some deciduous forest types have the potential for productivity increases across the assessment area.
Northern and boreal species are expected to face increasing stress from climate change in the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Across northern latitudes, warmer temperatures are expected to be more favorable to individuals near the northern extent of their species’ range and less favorable to those near the southern extent. Results from climate impact models project declines in suitable habitat and landscape-level biomass for northern and high elevation species such as black spruce, balsam fir, red spruce, and paper birch. Forest ecosystems dominated by boreal species, such as spruce-fir or paper birch, are consistently rated as the most vulnerable across numerous regional vulnerability assessments.
Many invasive species, insect pests, and pathogens in the Mid-Atlantic will increase or become more damaging.
Changes in climate may allow some nonnative plant species, insect pests, and pathogens to expand their ranges farther north as the climate warms and the growing season increases. The abundance and distribution of some nonnative plant species may be able to increase directly in response to a warmer climate and also indirectly through increased invasion of stressed or disturbed forests. Similarly, forest pests and pathogens are generally able to respond rapidly to changes in climate and also disproportionately damage-stressed ecosystems.
Soil moisture patterns will change in the Mid-Atlantic with the potential for drier soil conditions later in the growing season.
Given that warmer temperatures and seasonal changes in precipitation are expected across the region, it is reasonable to expect that soil moisture regimes will also shift. Longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures would generally be expected to result in greater evapotranspiration losses and lower soil-water availability later in the growing season, thereby increasing moisture stress on forests. Further, increases in extreme rain events suggest that greater amounts of precipitation may occur during fewer precipitation events, resulting in longer periods between rainfall.
Sea levels along the Mid-Atlantic coast are expected to rise by 2 to 3 feet or more by the end of the century.
All global climate models agree that sea level will rise. Sea levels have increased over the past century, and this trend is expected to continue. Additional warming is expected to increase global sea levels by up to 1m (3 ft) by the end of the century. In the Mid-Atlantic, sea-level rise is significantly greater than observed global sea-level rise, due to sinking of the land surface as it adjust to the melting of former ice sheets and the withdrawals of natural resources from underground.
Climate conditions will increase wildfire risk by the end of the century
Some national and global studies suggest that conditions favorable for wildfire will increase, but few studies have specifically looked at wildfire risk in the Mid-Atlantic region. The duration of the fire season in the Mid-Atlantic region is closely linked with increases in average temperature during the summer (Liu et al. 2010). If drought or prolonged dry periods increase in this region as expected, fire risk will increase in both forests and local communities.