Forest [FAR1]

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. NPC Class MHn44 (Northern Wet-Mesic Boreal Hardwood-Conifer Forest) may be particularly vulnerable because this class contains boreal species such as quaking aspen, balsam fir, and paper birch.

Fire-Dependent Forests that contain a diversity of species, age classes, and structures may be more resilient to changing conditions than forests with few species and uniform age classes and structure. Diversity in all of these features can give a forest more possible pathways to respond to changing or unexpected conditions.

These forests are adapted to withstand wildfire, drought, pest outbreaks, and nutrient-poor soils. This lends them a competitive advantage and might allow them to be resilient to expected changes in climate.

Milder winters are generally expected to boost the deer population in the Northwoods.

The continued shift toward mesic species within Fire-Dependent Forests may be encouraged by climate change if fire suppression activities continue and broadleaf species like red maple continue to spread.

Longer growing seasons and milder winters might allow populations of native forest pests to build more rapidly, and many pests have been shown to be more damaging when interacting with trees that are already stressed due to droughts or other impacts. The possibility also exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in northern Minnesota.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to increase in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.

Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that these species are more likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century.

Earlier snowmelt and warmer springs could result in fires occuring earlier than normal in northern Minnesota.

Fire Dependent Forests may be exposed to larger and more frequent wildfires under climate change. Drought conditions may raise the risk of wildfires. Blowdowns and pest outbreaks could provide more fuel buildup, along with mortality from drought or other stressors. Greater wildfire activity could benefit these forest types, but it is possible that too much change to the fire regime would hamper regeneration. Excessive fire could result in a transition to grassland or barrens.