Forest [FAR1]

Legacy FAR1 strategy/approaches.

Taxonomy Machine Name
niacs_strategy
Taxonomy Alias
far1

The number of days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation will increase across the Southeast by the middle of the century, and double the number of heavy rainfall events are projected by late century.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in the Southeast, and will continue to increase in the future. Most of the region is projected to experience 6% to 25% more days each year with more than an inch of precipitation by the middle of the century. The largest increases (up to 25% increases) in extreme precipitation are expected across the Appalachian Mountains. The smallest increases (less than 10%) are expected across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Average annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly in the northeast portion of the Southeast, but may decrease in the southwest half of the region.

Submitted by sdhandler on

There is uncertainty between different climate scenarios for future precipitation projections in the Southeast. Generally, there is a southwest-to-northeast gradient in annual precipitation projections. The greatest increases are projected in North Carolina and Virginia (3-9% increase by the end of the century), and the greatest decreases are projected in Louisiana and Arkansas (3-12% decrease by the end of the century). Overall changes in precipitation for the Southeast are projected to be slight and comparable to current year-to-year variations.

The Southeast is expected to experience between 0 and 14 fewer days per year with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.

Submitted by sdhandler on

The largest decreases are expected in Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina and the northern part of Arkansas. The smallest decreases in cold days are expected along the coastal and southern areas, where these kinds of cold days rarely occur. Similarly, the Southeast region is expected to have more than 20 fewer days with a minimum temperature below 32 degrees by the middle of the century.

The Southeast is expected to experience between 5 and 30 more days per year with a maximum temperature exceeding 95 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.

Submitted by sdhandler on

The smallest increase of 4 days per year is expected in areas with a currently low number of 95-degree days, including the highest elevation areas along the spine of the Appalachians where historically days above 95-degrees occur fewer than 10 days out of the year. The largest increase in the number of 95-degree days per year (35 days) is expected in south-central Florida, where these kinds of hot days are already common. The western portion of the region is expected to experience the largest number of consecutive 95-degree days, with as many as 16-20 additional days by mid-century.

Temperatures in the Southeast are projected to increase by 4.4 to 7.7 degrees Fahrenheit by late-century (2071-2100).

Submitted by sdhandler on

All climate models agree that temperatures are projected to increase over the 21st century across the Southeast. The spatial variations are projected to be relatively small across the region, with the largest temperature changes occurring in the northwest part of the region (Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee), the smallest variations occurring in southern Florida. Temperature increases will be the greatest in summer. The greatest warming during summer is expected in the northwest portion of the region.

Climate change will amplify many existing stressors to forests in the Great Plains, such as invasive species, insect pests and pathogens, and disturbance regimes.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Forest ecosystems throughout the Great Plains are exposed to a range of natural, introduced, and anthropogenic stressors. High-elevation forests and semiarid riparian forests are faced with their own distinct kinds of stressors. Invasive plants, forest pests, diseases, droughts, and floods are expected to become more damaging under climate change, and these factors may interact in unpredictable ways.

Climate conditions may slightly increase wildfire risks in in the Great Plains by the end of the century.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Different modeling approaches generally conclude that future climate conditions will increase the risk of wildfire across the Great Plains. Annual fire probability, calculated solely with climate data and physical principles, is projected to increase by 20% to 1200% across the region by the end of the century, with the largest increases occuring in Wyoming and western Montana. Fire probability may decrease in Texas, however.

Longer growing seasons, warmer temperatures, and greater water demand for agriculture may reduce available water for natural ecosystems.

Submitted by sdhandler on

Water is central to the productivity of the Great Plains. Projected increases in winter and spring precipitation in the Northern Plains may benefit productivity by increasing water availability through soil moisture reserves during the early growing season. The Northern Plains will remain vulnerable to periodic drought because much of the projected increase in precipitation is expected to occur in the cooler months while increasing temperatures will result in additional evapotranspiration.