Model projections for aspen are mixed under a range of future climate scenarios across northern Michigan, but drought stress may contribute to future declines.

Quaking aspen and bigtooth aspen can tolerate a wide range of soil types and moisture conditions and aspen is a management priority for many landowners. These species may do well with a moderate amount of future warming, and the Tree Atlas and LANDIS models project either no change or slight increases for quaking aspen and bigtooth aspen by the end of the century under the mildest future climate scenario. Both models indicate that these species will fare much worse under hotter, drier climate scenarios. Quaking aspen is expected to be sensitive to projected changes in soil moisture and vapor-pressure deficit, but bigtooth aspen is expected to be more tolerant of drought stress.