Climate conditions will increase fire risks in in the Midwest by the end of the century.

Different modeling approaches generally conclude that future climate conditions will increase the risk of wildfire across the Midwest. Annual fire probability, calculated solely with climate data and physical principles, is projected to increase by 20% to 80% across the Midwest by the end of the century. The incidence of atmospheric conditions that contribute to large and erratic fire behavior, measured by the Haines Index, is also projected to occur more frequently by the end of the century. The limitation for these sorts of projections is that they do not account for changes in land use, fire suppression rates, or vegetation changes.