The frequency and intensity of cold waves is expected to decrease across the Midwest by the middle of the century (2036-2065).

Daily low temperatures are projected to increase substantially across the Midwest, particularly under a higher climate scenario (RCP 8.5). For example, the coldest day of the year is expected to be about 9.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by the middle of the century (2036-2065), according to an average of 32 climate models under scenario RCP 8.5. The Midwest is also expected to experience 20 to 40 fewer days per year below 32 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century. The greatest declines of days below freezing is expected in northern Michigan, but the trend is generally similar across the region.