Suitable habitat for many common species is projected to decline in the mixed mesophytic and cove forest ecosystem.

Submitted by dshannon on

Models project that American beech, eastern hemlock (considered a keystone species where it occurs), and sugar maple will remain relatively stable under low climate scenarios, but will lose suitable habitat, growth potential, and volume in the Central Appalachians under high climate scenarios (Chapter 5). These species are vulnerable to the direct changes in temperature and precipitation, and are susceptible to moisture stress, beech bark disease, mortality from hemlock woolly adelgid, and other stresses resulting from indirect impacts of climate change. Results are mixed for red maple, tulip tree, black cherry, and white ash, which are projected to lose suitable habitat but maintain potential growth and volume. Although the amount of suitable habitat may contract, models agree that remaining suitable habitat may allow regeneration of these species in the absence of other stressors. Results for northern red oak are highly variable across the Central Appalachians, but suggest positive effects on regeneration where suitable habitat remains. Black oak is projected to remain stable under low climate scenarios, but under high climate scenarios suitable habitat is expected to increase while growth potential and trees per acre decrease.