Species in Central Appalachian fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Habitat fragmentation can hinder the ability of tree species to migrate to more suitable habitat on the landscape, especially if the surrounding area is nonforested. Modeling results indicate that mean centers of suitable habitat for tree species will migrate between 60 and 350 miles by the year 2100 under a high emissions scenario and between 30 and 250 miles under milder climate change scenarios. Based on data gathered for seedling distributions, it has been estimated that many northern tree species could possibly migrate northward at a rate of 100 miles per century. Fragmentation makes this disparity even more challenging, because the landscape is essentially less permeable to migration.